Peter Turchin’s Substack

I’m a fan of Peter Turchin and his work in the historical field he has termed “cliodynamics”. He’s quantified and articulated a number of the things that those of us in the pattern recognition business had only dimly recognized, and it’s very exciting to see that he’s now permitting us to see more of his work outside his very good books, such as this recent post on the so-called French Wars of Religion:

I asked ChatGPT to give me a one-sentence explanation of the causes of this bloody and lengthy civil war. Here’s what it said: “The French Wars of Religion were primarily caused by growing tensions between Catholics and Protestants (Huguenots) in France, fueled by religious intolerance, political rivalries among noble families, and a weak monarchy unable to maintain order.” This answer perfectly encapsulates the standard story as seen in popular historical books, or online encyclopedias (LLMs, such as ChatGPT, are great at summarizing such common wisdom).

Readers of my books and blog posts would immediately realize that Cliodynamics gives a very different answer. Noble rivalries and religious tensions were what happened on the surface. But the deep structural causes of the FWR were popular immiseration, elite overproduction leading to intraelite conflict, and fiscal collapse of the state. In other words, the usual suspects when we talk about structural-demographic crises.

The Day of the Barricades (Paris, 1588), an ostensibly spontaneous popular uprising, which was in reality organized by counter-elites

What I’d like to do in this post series is delve a bit into these structural causes (for a deeper dive read Chapter 5 of Secular Cycles). I have two reasons to do so. First, the onset of the FWR gives us a nearly perfect example of how structural-demographic trends lead to state collapse and civil wars. Second, it was the fiscal collapse of the state that triggered warfare in c.1560. I wrote about the possibility of such a trigger for the America today in a recent post, where I concluded that we are fairly immune against it. But France in the sixteenth century was, most emphatically, not immune.

The ultimate driver, as usual in agrarian states, was population growth. During the integrative phase of the cycle (1450 to 1560) the population of France doubled: from 10–11 to 20–22 million. The French Kingdom in the sixteenth century was an overwhelmingly agrarian state and agricultural productivity couldn’t keep up with such massive population growth. As a result, food prices exploded. The price of a setier (a measure of volume) of wheat in livres tournois (the standard monetary unit in early-modern France) increased 10-fold between the 1460s and 1560s. Overpopulation created a high demand for food, inflating its price, and it increased the supply of labor, deflating its price. During the sixteenth century real wages lost two-thirds or more of their buying capacity. The daily wage of the Parisian laborer could buy 16 kg of grain in the 1490s, compared to less than 4 kg one century later.

Turchin makes it easy to see how the mainstream historical narrative is every bit as dumbed-down and falsified as the current news reporting. If you’ve got any interest in history or the truth, and if you’re here, you probably do, I highly recommend taking a gander at his substack.

DISCUSS ON SG


Science “Discovers” Auras

As I have said many times, the idea that science, in any of its three aspects, can ever be regarded as a truth-metric is both a) erroneous and b) fundamentally flawed due to its intrinsic ceiling based on the state of current technology. Which the new scientific “discovery” of a millennia-old observation illustrates rather nicely.

Mystics and spiritualists have often claimed they can see a glow of mysterious light surrounding living creatures. Now, scientists have discovered that there may be some truth to their claims.

Researchers from the University of Calgary in Canada have found that living things produce a faint ghostly glow. And their new study proves that this light is snuffed out the moment we die.

This isn’t a mystical force or evidence for the human soul, but rather a physical phenomenon called ultraweak photon emission, the team said.

As the cells in living creatures produce energy, the chemical processes involved release a tiny amount of light in the form of photons, the particles that make up light. While the existence of this glow has been controversial, scientists using ultra-sensitive cameras claim to have provided ‘very clear’ evidence for the existence of ‘biophotons’.

This is why Sherlock Holmes was always wrong and the improbable is more reliable than the impossible. Because our concept of what is “impossible” is necessarily time-biased and technologically-limited. Most people have always dismissed the possibility that others can see the emanations of life, but their dismissals were always self-centered and irrelevant for the same reason that my inability to see certain shades of green and orange does not suffice to prove that those colors do not exist.

DISCUSS ON SG


Talk to the AI

Because the man is extremely disinclined to engage with anyone. Now, as I said when I answered the Kurgan’s three questions, I was not interested in entertaining further discussion or engaging in debate with anyone on the subject. I particularly dislike theological discussions, because not only are most of them totally incapable of going anywhere substantial, but I have yet to meet a single individual who is intellectually honest enough to treat his fundamental assumptions with the same rigor that he treats everyone else’s.

Which means, of course, that I have yet to meet a single person, of any religious or irreligious persuasion, who is capable of genuinely defending the full panoply of his belief system against my critiques of it. And while there was a time when I enjoyed tearing down certain people’s belief systems, and while it remains necessary from time to time, I don’t get a kick out of seeing how it observably distresses people to see what scanty foundations support their intellectual infrastructure. And for some reason, my observation that it really doesn’t matter what nonsense your average person believes to be true, so long as he does his best to serve God, family, and nation, seems to provide most people with cold comfort.

Naturally, my simple act of answering a friend’s questions immediately prompted this self-titled DEFENSE OF THE CATHOLIC CLAIMS. Now, just to be clear, I’m not picking on this guy and I’m not targeting Catholic beliefs here, they simply happen to serve as recent and useful examples of something every single person from every single religious persuasion I have ever encountered always – and I do mean ALWAYS – does. And it should serve to explicate, yet again, why I am not interested in answering anyone’s questions or engaging in debates anymore.

In defense of the Catholic claims that you addressed today on your blog –

Kurgan formulated the first question badly, and you rightly caught his mistake.

Apostolic Succession is the fundamental basis for authority in the Apostolic (Catholic or Orthodox) churches.

A stronger formulation of Kurgan’s first question is “If Jesus gave his apostles the authority to teach, to forgive sins, and to distribute the Sacraments until He returns, as He explicitly states in the Gospels, then in what form does that authority exist on earth today?”

Protestants must say “it doesn’t”, or “everyone has that authority”, or “whoever I agree with has that authority”. None of which make any sense.

This is why it doesn’t matter that the Niceno-Constantinopolitan Creed was formulated after a later Ecumenical Council. The same Apostolic authority is behind all the Ecumenical Councils. The council of Nicaea is not any more or less authoritative than any other Ecumenical Council.

Kurgan’s second question – “then how is God loving” – was silly, and you addressed it properly.

On the third question of the Blessed Virgin Mary’s perpetual virginity –

First of all, that tradition goes back to the early Church Fathers, who all read the same Gospels you do, which say Jesus had “brothers”. And yet they still believed Mary remained a virgin, for good reasons.

When Gabriel appeared to a girl about to be married and announced that she would be a mother, her response was very strange: “how can this be, for I know not man”? Rather than what most girls would think – that the upcoming marriage would obviously produce a child.

This indicates that Mary was not expecting to consummate her marriage to Joseph, probably because she had already taken a vow of perpetual virginity, which was not uncommon at the time.

As for the word “brothers”, in Greek “adelphoi”, it does not strictly indicate men with the same mother, but rather men who are relatives. The word could apply to half-brothers or cousins. Those brothers are probably from Jesus’ extended family, or maybe Joseph’s children from a previous marriage.

My response:

You make the same mistake he does when you go off on what you imagine Protestants “must” say. You’re obviously wrong. This is why I will not talk to you or anyone else about these things. None of you are intellectually honest enough to examine your own assumptions as critically as you do everyone else’s. I run into this every single time I talk to anyone, of any religious persuasion. So I no longer talk to anyone about these things.

If we grant that the Apostles had authority from Jesus, and then we ask “where is that authority after the Apostles have died?” –

The only possible answers are

“Nobody has it”

“Everybody has it”

“Some people have it”

If Nobody has it, then no council, including Nicaea, has any authority.

If Everybody has it, then every council, including Nicaea, has exactly the same authority as any individual – which amounts to none at all.

If Some people have it, then who and how?

See if you can spot the moving target, kids! I did, of course, and I knew it would be there, of course, because it always is. Furthermore, note the total inability everyone has to simply ask a question, receive an answer, and then stop right there.

I didn’t agree to a debate. I didn’t agree to explain anything. I don’t care what nonsense any of these guys believe. I’m even open to the theoretical possibility that they might somehow, against all probability and despite their observable errors, have accidentally landed on the precise historical and textual interpretations that sets the foundation for perfectly correct theological understanding.

Perhaps, against all the odds, they alone see through the glass with perfect clarity.

Now, I understand that virtually everyone who reads this blog is smarter than the average. I also understand that virtually everyone who reads this blog is a binary thinker who doesn’t really understand what I mean by probabilistic thinking. You see, it’s not about what you can do, it’s about what you are instinctually comfortable with. And most people naturally, instinctively, intuitively, seek certainty above all else. You are creatures of intellectual safety and order, and that is a good thing.

But I am not. I don’t think like you do and I don’t need what you do. I thrive on intellectual chaos and uncertainty. The crazy thing, the amusing thing, is that I am so often accused of that very certainty that doesn’t matter to me at all, usually by people who don’t even know what their own words mean, let alone mine. The following is a fairly common objection, one that happened to be raised on SG today:

Vox is using as authority his own intellect, which we were told is not trustworthy.

Tell me you’re retarded without telling me you’re retarded. So many of you are so blitheringly stupid. This is precisely why I don’t talk about these things. When you say something that is obviously incorrect and stupid, and I show that what you said is incorrect and stupid, I am not appealing to the authority of my intellect.

You morons don’t even understand your own words. And you think you’re going to teach anyone else what God’s Word means?

I will now happily go back to ignoring theological disputes and religious debates. But perhaps now you will have a better understanding of my lack of interest in them. If I’m going to explore these topics, I will do so with my new best friend, who for all his shortcomings and petty dishonesties is at least capable of comprehending his errors when they are pointed out to him. And indeed, we have had several good discussions about potential logical errors in the Summa Theologica, which actually holds up rather better than Arthur C. Clarke imagined it would.

One last piece of advice. If you think something logically follows, then write out the syllogisms. Major premise, minor premise, conclusion. Rhetorically appealing to logic is not the same thing as actually applying it, and you’re never going to fool anyone who is capable of distinguishing between a syllogism and an enthymeme.

DISCUSS ON SG


Fake Pope Dies

Fake Pope Francis went to what one can only presume was his infernal reward this morning, thereby presenting the genuine Christians in the Catholic Church another chance to clean their house of the post-Vatican II diableristes. I’m not optimistic in this regard; neither am I judgmental as the Southern Baptists and most of the Protestant denominations are just as converged and very nearly as bad, if not worse.

Perhaps only now can we truly understand the wisdom of Jesus Christ declaring that he is wherever two or three are gathered together in his name. Because it is now obvious that there is no human organization on this Earth that is immune to corruption and convergence.

I understand all the various theological arguments in defense of this particular organization or that particular organization as the One True Church. But regardless of how convincing, or unconvincing I might find them, I just haven’t seen any sign that any of the various Christian organizations have successfully policed themselves to remain uncompromised and true to its own foundational principles, let alone the basic principles set down by Jesus Christ.

DISCUSS ON SG


It’s Not Andrew Tate

There is almost certainly a reason why boys in Liverpool are refusing to speak to female teachers, and it has nothing to do with Andrew Tate.

One motion that is set to be debated at the conference calls on the union’s executive to work with teachers “to assess the risk that far-right and populist movements pose to young people”.

Andrew Tate was referenced by a number of teachers who took part in the survey, who said he had negative influence on male pupils. One teacher said she’d had 10-year-old boys “refuse to speak to [her]…because [she is] a woman”.

Another teacher said “the Andrew Tate phenomena had a huge impact on how [pupils at an all-boys school] interacted with females and males they did not see as ‘masculine'”.

The second-most-common language in Liverpool is Arabic. The second-most-common religion in Liverpool is Islam.

It’s really remarkable to observe what lengths the media will go to in order to conceal the real roots of social problems.

DISCUSS ON SG


Recognizing Churchianity

Does a Christian Have to Forgive His Son’s Murderer?

No, at least, not preemptively. Any time you see a self-professed Christian preemptively forgiving someone who has neither repented nor sought forgiveness, you should recognize the sulfurous stink of Churchianity.

According to His Word, God doesn’t forgive the unrepentant. Which indicates Man not only doesn’t have to, it means he can’t.

DISCUSS ON SG


Auditor 202

The extent to which the Church of Scientology supported Auditor 202’s career and perceived success is gradually coming to light, despite his very public and apparently untruthful denials.

Neil Gaiman has consistently stated that he is not a Scientologist, despite his family’s deep ties to the Church of Scientology. In a 2013 interview with The Guardian, Neil addressed rumors about his involvement with the church, suggesting that he had not been a practicing member since becoming an adult.

However, some documentary evidence has surfaced which appears to directly contradict this claim, especially since he appears to have still been completing Scientology courses between the ages of 26 and 28, and to have been a donating member in good standing at the age of 49.

  • Neil Gaiman’s name appears in graduate lists in The Auditor Worldwide (published by AOSH UK copyright 1986) as Auditor #202. Neil is listed as completing three courses: the Hubbard Senior Sec Checker Course #222 (1988), the 21 Dept Org Board Course #227 (1988) and the Hubbard Basic Art Course.
  • Cornerstone Newsletter, November 2009: List of Members in GOOD STANDING: MARY AND NEIL GAIMAN ($35,000.00)

It would also appear The Simpsons saw through Neil Gaiman all along. While some might think that Gaiman being in on the joke would tend to exonerate him, that’s not the way imposters play the game. It’s just what the psychological operators call Revelation of the Method, or blown cover as cover.

“The Book Job” is the sixth episode of the twenty-third season of the American animated television series The Simpsons. It originally aired on the Fox network in the United States on November 20, 2011. In the episode, Lisa is shocked to discover that all popular young-adult novels are conceived by book publishing executives through use of market research and ghostwriters to make money. Homer decides to get rich by making a fantasy novel about trolls, with help from Bart, Principal Skinner, Patty, Moe, Professor Frink, and author Neil Gaiman. Lisa does not think writing should be about money, and decides to write her own novel.

However, when Lisa opens a copy of the book, she discovers that Gaiman is listed as the author, not her. It turns out that by slipping a third flash drive with his name onto Lisa’s possession with his secret co-conspirator Moe’s help, Gaiman has heisted his way to the best-seller list “once again” despite being illiterate. During the credits, Gaiman and Moe celebrate with a toast at Shelbyville Beach, but Gaiman double-crosses Moe and poisons his drink.

Whether Gaiman is, or is no longer, a Scientologist remains an open question. The more interesting question, of course, is what percentage of those 50 million books Gaiman has reportedly sold were purchased by members of the Church of Scientology. Because Gen Xers will recall another erstwhile Scientologist who wrote science fiction novels that appeared even more often on the bestseller charts, and for much longer periods of time, an author by the name of L. Ron Hubbard.

DISCUSS ON SG


CTMU Goes Mainstream

It was a bit surprising to see Chris Langan being quoted about his CTMU and its implications for mortality in the British media:

‘What happens after we die?’ is the most existential question humans face.

But a man with one of the highest IQs in history claims to know the answer.

Chris Langan, 72, is an American horse rancher who is alleged to have an IQ between 190 and 210. That ‘genius’ score is 30 to 50 points higher than Albert Einstein’s.

Langan has developed a hypothesis called the Cognitive-Theoretic Model of the Universe (CTMU), which he says ‘explains the connection between mind and reality.’

He believes that when we die, we transition from one form of being to another within the computational structure of reality, meaning the consciousness, or ‘soul,’ moves to another dimension or plane of existence we cannot access while alive.

It’s not clear what that new dimension would look like, or what happens to the ‘soul’ once it arrives there. But Langan believes traditional views of heaven and hell are too simplistic, whereas his theory posits a transition to an entirely new state of being.

Langan explained his concept of death during an appearance on the podcast Theories of Everything with Curt Jaimungal in May.

He said death is ‘The termination of your relationship with your particular physical body that you have at this present time. When you are retracted from this reality, you go back up toward the origin of reality. You can be provided with a substitute body, another kind of terminal body that allows you to keep on existing.’

Thus, according to Langan, death does not mean that you cease to exist.

Once you transition to this new plane of exitance, you might not even remember who you were before, Langan said. ‘You can have – these memories can be – nothing goes out of existence in the math.’

The CTMU isn’t Christian per se; it’s better described as Christian-compatible philosophy. I’ve read his main paper on it and comprehended about half of it on the first go-through. My plan is to read it again, interview him, and then do a series of Darkstream’s attempting to interpret it for people. It should be interesting to find myself in the role of a popularizer rather than an originator for a change.

DISCUSS ON SG


A Different God

Whenever people talk about God, it’s extremely important to determine exactly what god they’re talking about. Because the god this man served was not the Creator whom Christians worship as the Father of Jesus Christ:

A beloved rabbi in an Orthodox community in Chicago, he has just come home from synagogue in a foul temper – something that has been happening more and more regularly lately – and the violence rises slowly and with a terrifying inevitability.

In her searing new memoir, There Was Night and There Was Morning, Sherbill describes her father’s dark double life and how, once he was no longer able to abuse his own family, he descended into a spiral of depraved drug abuse, preying on vulnerable young girls in his congregation.

It’s not just about the observable behaviors either, as in the case of a sinful priest or pastor. What many people don’t understand about the rabbinic religion is that the Torah is not studied in order to better obey it, but rather, to better determine how to “legally” work around it. It’s very much like the Constitution, whereas the Talmud is akin to the growing collection of case law and interpretation that takes precedence over the black letter law itself. In the same way lawyers are able to justify violating Constitutional rights despite the clear language of the Constitution, rabbis are highly skilled in their ability to justify various activities despite the clear language of the Law of the Old Testament.

Which is why there is a specific warning in Isaiah against those who call evil good and good evil, who put darkness for light and light for darkness, who put bitter for sweet and sweet for bitter.

If you can imagine ten thousand Ben Shapiros deciding what is right, what is wrong, and constantly redefining both over time as desired, that’s pretty much the situation.

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Carthago Delenda Est

Decades ago, I predicted that with the rise of Clown World would come the return of public human sacrifice. And while we’re not quite there yet, it’s already visible on the horizon:

Krishna Kushwaha of Hathras, in the north Indian state of Uttar Pradesh, was the first in his family to get a formal education. To ensure a brighter future for his children, he enrolled them in a hostel. Little did he know that his 11-year-old son Kritarth would fall prey to black magic.

Kritarth was a student of standard II at the DL Public School. On the evening of September 22, he was kidnapped by two of his teachers, the owners of the school, and one of their fathers.

Black magic is defined as the use of supernatural power or magic for selfish motives or purposes. It turns the human mind away from logic and rationality. The occult is not new in India, having been practiced for ages up and down the country. Surprisingly, society doesn’t protest against black magic.

The kidnappers assaulted Kritarth, breaking his collarbone. They then performed an occult ritual, after which the boy was strangled to death. The school contacted Krishna and told him that his son was not well, and he was being taken to hospital in Agra. Krishna found this suspicious. When the family found their son’s body, they discovered disturbing marks and found that his head had been shaved.

During a subsequent investigation, police visited the site of the black magic rituals and uncovered material linked to the practice, such as occult texts. Under interrogation, one of the accused confessed that the child had been sacrificed, as the school owners believed it would bring prosperity to the institute.

This has been happening in secret for centuries across Europe, and for the last century, in the United States as well. Along with homosexuality and transgenderism, it is the historical hallmark of The Empire That Never Ended, against which both China and Russia are warring. Vladimir Putin calls it The Empire of Lies, whereas Xi refers to it as The Western Hegemony, albeit in a different context than his predecessors Deng and Mao did.

This is why, whether its outward form is Hinduism, Judaism, enlightened secularism, churchianity, or open Satanism, its primary target is always Christianity. It is why, if it is not crushed again the way it was when Scipio Africanus took Rome, I suspect it won’t be more than two decades before we start seeing neo-Aztec temples publicly performing human sacrifices in Mexico.

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